Cognitive Biases of Lotto or Dooms Days and Destiny

Looking Back to the Past and saying the Present was Destined.
Making a decision and thinking only after learning that such a decision was wrong only by the consequences of the decision, and stating that one could have known better is such an annoying Cognitive Bias. It falls under the Cognitive Biases where the Person Completely takes for granted the sequence of events that lead to learning/acquiring that particular set of information.

Cognitive Biases related to this.
Outcome bias – the tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made.
Post-purchase rationalization – the tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that a purchase was a good value.
Wishful thinking – the formation of beliefs and the making of decisions according to what is pleasing to imagine instead of by appeal to evidence or rationality


The Justification of Winning the Lotto or the World Ending.
I won a bet with a friend that the US stock market won't crash to the point of creating a dooms day scenario of some sort. I have a better appreciation of the rationalization of People who think the world is ending, when I play the Lotto (which was $15.6M last week). When someone has the Lotto or the End of the world in mind, all future or long ranged decision making starts screwing up. Basically one begins to exhibit a lot Hyperbolic Discounting, and the End of the World or Cashing in because of the Lotto Draw starts allowing the person to justify their actions.

So some people who think the world is ending are trying to justify their irrationalities and economic decisions. The same way as I would LOVE to buy more airsoft guns if there is a chance I would win the lotto no matter how remote. (this is also a cognitive bias called

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Technically I'm done with the project

no charter . after learning what a charter is and because they don't work with a charter I'll never do a project without it. A charter is a written agreement with a project sponsor/employer/ in what outputs to be expected and what points are needed to consider a project done. I've never worked with a character before and was continually frustrated and depressed because of constant revisions and fluctuating tastes and expectations. I'd rather be thought of a total prick than to destroy my life working without a charter. This comes up because, when technically my dad removed me from the website project I'm being asked to arrange it again. This fuels my wishes, not to mention memories of unbearable depressions, to really leave the company I just joined in 2 months. Honestly, I'm here cause my parents want me. They can't make me want this job. I was doing well in the 3d artist track, I was poor but well, less stressed and still hopeful of my future. Personally,
Read more

Gurps Mysteries

A really great GM book . If there was Game Mastering for Dummies (not just for DnD or GURPS ), Gurps Mysteries is the next level of Advanced Game Mastering. This is where the players grow up a little, they are not as interested in Hack and Slash anymore and they begin to lean on a more cerebral challenge. One of the best elements of this books is how to communicate clearly to your players through clues and hints in the game. Despite its focus on mystery, this books i great for any intrigue. Eventually mastering these technqies, format, and story telling will allow for games to have a very clear and sophisticated finish. An art onto itself, and not just a game. Of course the most important element is having fun. Fun is when you and the players are on the same page no matter what you throw at them to challenge their characters and give them a chance to shine. Filled with too much information . I'm excited at what I learned about armor smithing in the early Renaissance and late
Read more

330mg of Caffeine will do the trick

Ok i got a grande brewed coffee and put 8-10 packets of brown sugar thats about 155 calories. This is twice the amount of Caffeine i get from my 2 shots of espresso in the morning with 4 teaspoons of brown sugar. How do i feel... Better! although my face is reeling from the bitter after taste of the coffee. good coffee is really sour going down and really bitter after. The intense sugar tends to make the sourness taste fruity. Anyway, my is elevated and I'm a bit hyper but i am able to control that better these days. The tons of notebook and the emotional intelligence studies help. Particularly when i've broken down most of my peculiarities and the way I think. Heck, I think i can make an entire wiki based on how I'd react to certain things. It would be very revealing and transparent of me, and of course like the anything so vulnerable subject to abuse when falling in the wrong hands. I have to email, a friend back some airsoft details.
Read more